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Adaptive pathways of coral populations on the Great Barrier Reef

Mikhail V Matz, Eric A Treml, Galina V Aglyamova, Madeleine J H van Oppen, Line K Bay
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/114173
This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?].
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Abstract

Global warming is predicted to drive preferential survival of warm adapted genotypes that have migrated to cooler locations, and result in an overall decline in genetic diversity due to bleaching-related mortality. Population genomic analysis of Acropora millepora on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) revealed that most populations were demographically distinct with preferential southward migration from lower (warmer) to higher (cooler) latitudes. Still, no recent increase in southward migration was detectable, and predicted migration rates remained closely correlated with those derived from a biophysical model based on ocean currents. There was also no evidence of recent declines in genetic diversity. A multi-locus adaptation model suggested that standing genetic variation spread across latitudes might be sufficient to fuel continuous adaptation of A. millepora metapopulation over 100-200 years of gradual warming. However, the model also predicted increase in severity of local mortality events induced by thermal anomalies.

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The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.